Georgia’s economic growth is expected to slow to approximately 1.5% in 2026, aligning with national trends, according to the University of Georgia Terry College of Business. This forecast was shared at the launch of the 2026 Georgia Economic Outlook series held at Atlanta’s Georgia Aquarium.
“In 2026, Georgia’s economy will match the U.S. economy with respect to the pace of GDP and job growth,” said Santanu Chatterjee, interim dean of the Terry College of Business. “That said, both economies will experience positive but slower growth.”
The annual Georgia Economic Outlook event is organized by the UGA Selig Center for Economic Growth, which has provided economic forecasts for more than four decades.
Recent years saw strong momentum in Georgia due to population increases after the pandemic and a surge in new factories and logistics businesses. However, analysts note that a slowdown in population growth, a shrinking labor force, and uncertainties around trade policies are now making it harder for Georgia to outpace national economic challenges.
Inflation is projected to peak at about 3.5% during 2026 before declining to 3% in 2027. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its federal funds rate from recent highs down to about 2.75%, as policymakers try to balance inflation risks with concerns over a possible recession.
Chatterjee highlighted employment concerns: while unemployment may rise slightly next year—to an average rate of 4.1%—the main issue will be slower job creation overall. He also noted that investments in artificial intelligence and data centers could boost investment but introduce uncertainty regarding future jobs.
The real estate market is expected to remain flat through next year. Home affordability has reached record lows, discouraging current homeowners from selling their properties due to low existing mortgage rates. With fewer new residents moving into Georgia, analysts expect housing industry stagnation and predict that home prices—which increased significantly nationwide since the pandemic—will begin adjusting downward in 2026. However, this correction is not anticipated to mirror the sharp declines seen during the Great Recession.
“We do not expect a repeat of the housing bust that accompanied the Great Recession because there will not be enough distressed sales to drive home prices down drastically,” Chatterjee said. “Plus, there is tremendous potential for stronger and more active housing markets once the economy returns to trend growth. Home ownership is fundamentally more important to a larger proportion of the population than prior to the pandemic.”
Despite these challenges, Chatterjee expressed optimism about Georgia’s prospects: “Georgia’s economy is resilient and well diversified with a workforce with wide-ranging skill sets, a business-friendly policy environment and a world-class higher education network with top universities and trade schools,” he said. “This gives us much hope for the future.”
